Super Bowl best bets from the total and spread to which props to wager on

Welcome to the final Football Friday of the season. The Super Bowl is Sunday, which means we won't have any football for the next six months, but don't worry, I've packed enough picks in here today to cover you until August. CBS Sports HQ Newsletter Your Ultimate Guide to Every Day in Sports We bring sports news that matters to your inbox, to help you stay informed and get a winning edge. I agree to receive the "CBS Sports HQ Newsletter" and marketing communications, updates, special offers (including partner offers), and other information from CBS Sports and the Paramount family of companies. By pre sing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the and acknowledge Paramount's . Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe. Thanks for signing up! Keep an eye on your inbox. Sorry! There was an error proce sing your subscription. Also, since there's still a lot of time to kill between reading these words and kickoff at SoFi Stadium, I've included enough soccer picks to get you to Sunday and a money line parlay for Friday night. Before we get to what is easily the longest HQ PM Newsletter I've ever written for you, let's catch up on today's reading. We'll start with some other words I wrote for today. . . . .And now for the Super Bowl of newsletters. The Hot Ticket The Pick: Under 48.5 (-110): I was able to get the under when it was first posted at T.J. Warren Jersey 50, and it's come down since, but I still like it at 48.5. That said, it could be worth waiting on. All of the sharp money has come in on it, and there will be a flow of public action coming in as the game approaches, and public money tends to favor the over. So there's a chance this number climbs up to 49, which is a key number in football.As for why I like the under, I suppose I could just say I don't think this game will be high-scoring, but that wouldn't be as fun. Instead, I'll point out that the total for the Super Bowl has slowly been creeping up the last few years, and it's led to three straight unders. In Super Bowl 53, there was all the talk about taking on Sean McVay and an unstoppable Rams offense. The total closed at 55.5, and the game finished 13-3. Super Bowl 54 was about and the unstoppable offense against the mastermind Kyle Shanahan. The total was 52.5, and the final score snuck up to 31-20. Last year it was OMG TOM BRADY VS PATRICK MAHOMES, and the total was 55. The final score was 31-9.While Super Bowls 51 and 52 were high-scoring affairs, they are the exception more than the rule for the Super Bowl. While you need a strong offense to win a Super Bowl in the NFL these days, the teams with potent offenses and good defenses reach the game, and those defenses are too often overlooked. The Rams have a great defense. The Bengals have a better defense than most realize. Both will make life a lot more difficult for the other and keep this one from getting crazy. Edmond Sumner Jersey Unle s we reach overtime, I don't see this going over. So if we lose this bet, at least we get overtime in the freaking Super Bowl.Key Trend: The under has hit in three straight and four of the last six Super Bowls. You can't go into the weekend without all of my picks or . Other Super Bowl picksThe Pick: Bengals +4 (-110): Do you know what else has proven to be a solid play in Super Bowls? The underdog, and considering we don't expect this game to be high-scoring, the underdog makes even more sense. The biggest concern for Cincinnati in this matchup is its offensive line against the Rams defensive front. Including the postseason, the Bengals have allowed a sack on 8.2% of their dropbacks. That's the 31st worst rate in the league, ahead of only Chicago (9.1%). That's not great when you're facing a Rams defense that ranks 8th in the league in pre sure rate (32.1%) and sack rate (6.9%). What we overlook, though, is that doesn't care. Sure, it's not a healthy long Victor Oladipo Jersey -term plan for the franchise, but Burrow is willing to take a hit if it buys one of his receivers an extra half-second to get open. Plus, we can't just pretend the Rams don't have their own problems. This season, Los Angeles has turned the ball over on 11.8% of its po se sions (remember yesterday when we took the Matt Stafford interception prop?), which is more often than the Bengals have. The Bengals defense ranks 10th in turnover rate defensively, forcing them on 12.7% of their defensive po se sions. These are more reasons why I like the under, but a lower-scoring affair makes it unlikely either team can pull away from the other, making Cincinnati and those four points attractive.Key Trend: The last six Super Bowl underdogs of four points or more covered.The JaKarr Sampson Jersey Pick: Under 60.5 rushing yards (-130): There's been plenty of talk about the Bengals offensive line protecting Joe Burrow against this Rams defense and not nearly enough about it opening holes for Joe Mixon in the run game. The Rams rank seventh in the NFL in defensive EPA against the run and sixth in yards allowed per carry. Against San Francisco in the NFC Championship, they did a phenomenal job eliminating the rushing attack, which derailed everything the Niners wanted to do. They'll look to do the same against Cincinnati, and Joe Mixon has only rushed for 60 yards or more in two of Cincinnati's last eight games.Key Trend: Joe Mixon has averaged 58.9 yards rushing per game in the last eight games. The Pick: Joe Burrow Over 35.5 pa sing attempts (-115): This pick is connected to the Mixon prop. If the Rams take away the run game, that will force Cincinnati to throw more, and we've already seen that happen naturally with the Bengals. I just told you about Joe Mixon rushing for over 60 yards in only two of Cincinnati's last eight games, and Joe Burrow has attempted an average of 36.3 pa s attempts in those eight games. Take out the Denver game in which Burrow threw only 22 pa ses, and that average jumps to 38.3. The Bengals have been pa sing more often over the latter portion of the season than they were earlier, so let's take advantage.Key Trend: Joe Burrow is averaging 36.3 pa s attempts per game over the last eight.The Pick: to score 2+ TD (+285): I don't normally go after props like this one, but it's the Super Bowl, so let's have some fun. Plus, there's some decent value on this prop if you look at the numbers. Including the playoffs, the Bengals have allowed 23 pa sing touchdowns in the red zone this season, or one per game. No player in the league has caught more red-zone TDs than Kupp (16) or been targeted as often in the red zone (44). It's a shot that could pay off nicely. Key Trend: No player in the NFL has been targeted in the red zone or caught more red zone touchdowns than Cooper Kupp.The Pick: Tails (+100): Listen, betting the coin flip is the stupidest thing you can do when your book is charging juice on it. However, Caesars is offering even odds on both sides this year! Sure, that means there's no value on either side of this bet, but that's not the point. We bet the coin flip in the Super Bowl to set the tone.Key Trend: Tails never fails. SoccerThe Pick: Both Teams to Score (-140) --There is no bigger match in Europe this weekend. After losing to AC Milan last week, Inter Milan has seen its lead in Serie A shrink to a point over AC Milan and Napoli. Now, Inter has a match in hand, which is huge, but a lo s here would put Napoli in first, two points ahead. On Sunday, a Milan win over Sampdoria would then see Inter drop from Domantas Sabonis Jersey first to third. Meanwhile, a win for Inter in this spot would provide a nice cushion. So what's going to happen? I'm not entirely sure! The result of this one is a coin flip if that coin had three sides because I think any of the three po si
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