Carson Wentz vs. Dak Prescott An in-depth look at the stats separates hype from reality

Arguably the biggest story in the NFL through three weeks of the regular season is the play of two rookie quarterbacks that nobody expected to be starters when training camp broke. , the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, was expected to sit for a while behind and in Philadelphia, but an unexpected injury in Minnesota and the subsequent trade of Bradford to the thrust Wentz into ' starting lineup -- where he has shined beyond reasonable expectations. Similarly, was drafted by the with the intention that he'd sit and learn behind before taking over the top job a two or three years down the line. But when Romo suffered yet another back injury after his backup had already broken his ankle, Prescott was elevated to the No. 1 role -- where he, too, has excelled. With his team sitting at 3-0 and coming off a 34-3 drubbing of a team that many consider Super Bowl contenders, Wentz has gotten quite a bit more hype than Prescott during the early part of the regular season, but a look at the tape and their numbers reveals that the two pa sers have actually been more equal than one might initially think. Let's dig in.Team Offense George Iloka Jersey Take a look at the following chart: STATISTIC PHI (RANK) DAL (RANK) PPG 30.7 (2) 25.7 (11) PTS/DRIVE 2.68 (2) 2.66 (3) SCORE % 50.0% (4) 51.7% (2) FIELD POS 34.9 (1) 28.9 (13) DVOA 18.8% (5) 20.4% (4) Through three weeks, the Eagles have averaged a full five points more per game than the Cowboys. A slightly deeper look, however, reveals the two offenses have actually been equally effective. Why? Well, the Eagles have had 34 meaningful drives this season, per Pro-Football-Reference, while the Cowboys have only had 29. The latter figure is the lowest total in the league. On a per-drive basis, the Eagles are scoring 2.68 points, while the Cowboys are right behind them at 2.66 points per drive. The difference is practically negligible. The Cowboys have actually finished a greater percentage of their drives with a score despite the fact that the Eagles haven't turned the ball over yet while the Cowboys have lost two fumbles (one of two fumbles was recovered by Washington in Week 2; and fumbled at the end of a 47-yard catch and run in Week 3). Not only that, but Dallas has reached those figures despite starting its average drive 6 yards farther away from the end zone than Philadelphia, which so far has the Shawn Williams Jersey best average starting field position in the league thanks to a defense that has been utterly dominant in every way imaginable. Six yards of field position may not sound like a whole lot, but it is. Last season, 6 yards separated the team with the best average starting field position (Kansas City) from the team that finished 29th in the same stat (Houston). In 2014, it was the difference between first (Miami) and 31st (Washington). It's ma sive. Those factors are a large part of the reason why the Cowboys rank slightly ahead of the Eagles in Football Outsiders' Offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which adjusts performance for down, Russell Bodine Jersey distance, and opponent) through this early part of the season. Establishing that the two offenses have been of similar quality is not what we're really here for, though. The idea is to determine how much responsibility Wentz and Prescott bear for the succe s of those offenses so far. We'll start with the numbers before we dig into the factors that have contributed to how well these two have played. The Numbers We'll begin with another chart here: STATISTIC WENTZ PRESCOTT COMP 67 66 ATT 102 99 COMP % 65.7% 66.7% YDS 769 767 YPA 7.54 7.75 TD 5 1 INT 0 0 RTG 103.8 93.3 QBR 66.0 82.5 aDOT 7.7 9.2 As you can see, Wentz and Prescott have thrown almost the exact same number of pa ses for almost the exact same number of yards. They have completed almost the exact same percentage of those pa ses and neither of them has had a pa s intercepted. The main difference in their standard-i sue stats is the five-to-one touchdown advantage for Wentz, which we'll come back to later on. That advantage, though, is what gives Wentz the edge in pa ser rating; while Prescott's work on the ground (seven carries for 54 yards and two touchdowns) and on third downs (23 of 30 for 253 yards and a touchdown) are likely what push him ahead in ESPN's Total QBR. From a pure pa sing perspective, though, it's important to note a major difference in the way Wentz and Prescott have accumulated their statistics. Of Wentz's 102 pa ses, 20 of them have been thrown to receivers behind the line of scrimmage. That's nearly 20 percent of his total throws, and he's racked up 19 completions, 136 yards and one of his five touchdowns on to ses that were e sentially uncontested. Prescott, meanwhile, has thrown Cedric Ogbuehi Jersey only nine pa ses behind the line of scrimmage, totaling eight completions for 55 yards. Removing those throws from the equation for each quarterback gives you a slightly different look at their performance thus far: STATISTIC WENTZ PRESCOTT COMP 48 58 ATT 82 90 COMP % 58.5% 64.4% YDS 633 712 YPA 7.72 7.91 TD 4 1 INT 0 0 RTG 99.3 92.5 Those throws, of course, actually happened -- they were attempted and (mostly) completed and the yards they accounted for really were accrued. Removing them simply gives us an idea of how much the scheme has helped each quarterback thus far. Philadelphia has taken a screen-heavy approach and it has given Wentz the opportunity to take easy yards the defense can't really prevent. That they have players such as and that do excellent work after the catch plays a role in that; and those players, in particular, have helped Wentz immensely. As such, Wentz has gotten a far greater percentage of his total yards via post-catch runs by his receivers. Per Pro Football Focus, only one quarterback ( ) has accrued a lower percentage of his pa sing yards pre-catch than Wentz's 46.0 percent figure. That's far lower than the NFL average of 57.1 percent, while Prescott is above that average with a 58.6 percent figure. The Cowboys have asked Prescott to work more often in the short-to-intermediate area beyond the line of scrimmage. Players like and have been his primary targets as he's flashed only inconsistent chemistry with . A quick look at each player's pa sing grid highlights the slight differences in their teams' Andrew Billings Jersey approaches through the early part of the season. (Remember, 20 of Wentz's "short" throws were intended for receivers behind the line of scrimmage, while the same is true of only nine of Prescott's throws.) As you can see, there are no true areas of weakne s for either player, with the exception of Prescott throwing deep (20-plus yards downfield). After going 0 for 6 on those pa ses in Week 1 against the , though, he almost completely excised them from his game in Weeks 2 and
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